Roanoke College’s latest political poll — which surveyed hundreds of Virginians on numerous issues — shows several interesting trends, including that Nikki Haley would hold a lead over President Joe Biden in the state if she were the Republican nominee — but Donald Trump would not.
However, the poll, like others over the past year, continues to show Trump with a huge lead over Haley for the GOP presidential nomination, among those polled.
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College asked Virginians about the upcoming Super Tuesday primary on March 5 and looked ahead to the November general election. IPOR also asked about public attitudes related to state and national politics, as well as opinions on public figures and organizations.
IPOR interviewed 705 adult residents of Virginia between Feb. 11 and Feb. 19, according to a Roanoke College news release about the poll. The poll has a weighted margin of error of 4.62%.
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“Ahead of Super Tuesday, it’s not too surprising that former president Trump is likely to win the commonwealth’s Republican primary,” said David Taylor, director of IPOR. “Among Virginians that self-reported a likelihood of voting on Tuesday, Trump holds an eight-point lead over former ambassador Nikki Haley, but based on what we’ve seen in the past, I would expect actual voter turnout to be lower than what our poll found. Trump has a 62-point lead among Republicans and Haley has a 10-point lead among independents, so while a Trump victory is the likely outcome, Haley will capture several of Virginia’s 48 delegates up for grabs.”
The poll findings include:
Among self-reported Republicans, Donald Trump has a huge lead of 75% as their first choice to be the Republican nominee for president in November, followed by 15% for Nikki Haley and 8% for someone else. Support for both candidates has increased since November as other candidates have dropped out of the race; Trump is up 24% and Haley is up 5%. When asked about their second choice for the nominee, 6% chose Trump, 25% picked Haley and 56% would prefer someone else.
Of likely voters on March that were part of the survey, Trump holds an 8-point lead over Haley (51% to 43%).
Looking ahead to the general election in November and likely matchups for the presidency, Biden maintains a four-point lead over Trump (47% to 43%). If Haley were to be the Republican nominee, she would have a nine-point lead over Biden (49% to 40%).
When asked about the most important issue Virginians consider when voting, jobs and the economy (27%), immigration (17%), inflation (13%) and abortion (9%) were reported.
Biden’s job approval has decreased among Virginians, down nine points from an approval rating of 42% in May to 33% in this poll. In November, Biden’s approval was at 37%, and this poll marks the first time that more than 60% of Virginians disapprove of the way Biden is handling the presidency.
“What’s interesting to look at is a snapshot four years ago relative to this month’s poll, “ said IPOR’s Taylor. “In 2020, about 40% of Virginians said that the country was heading in the right direction; now that figure has dropped to nearly 25%. When asked about the direction of Virginia, results today roughly mirror those at the same time four years ago. When our poll in 2020 asked about former president Trump’s job approval, he had a 36% approval rating compared to incumbent Biden’s approval now of 33%. His current approval is the lowest IPOR has seen since Biden took office, when his approval was 47% among Virginians.”
The percentage of Virginians who believe things are generally on the wrong track in Virginia and the nation remains stable from our last poll, with 42% reporting that things are on the wrong track in Virginia and 73% reporting that things are on the wrong track in the nation.
As for the legislatures at the national and state levels, 16% of Virginians approve of the way Congress is handling its job (up two points since November, but within the margin of error) while 49% approve of the way the Virginia General Assembly is handling its job.
With the General Assembly considering bills that would potentially authorize and allow retail sale of cannabis in Virginia next year, the poll found that 63% of Virginians strongly or somewhat support laws that would help small businesses compete with pharmaceutical companies and existing medical cannabis dispensaries while only 15% somewhat or strongly oppose.
