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Toutville, Week: 11: Oddsmakers keep Pitt above 'chaos' fray

Toutville, Week: 11: Oddsmakers keep Pitt above 'chaos' fray

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The concept of Coastal chaos has not reached the folks in the desert.

While we’re busy breaking down potential tiebreakers in the ACC’s annually wacky division, oddsmakers have made their choice. Pitt is the +175 favorite to win the whole league (odds according to Barstool Sports), much less the Coastal.

Miami’s momentum has made the Hurricanes the third choice (behind Wake Forest) to win the ACC at +550, while Coastal rival Virginia is fifth on the board (behind N.C. State) at +600.

Still like the Hokies to pull off a miracle revival? Yeah, me neither. But that would pay 500-to-1.

Onward to Week 11:

ACC lines and notes (Amac’s line lean in bold)

North Carolina (+6.5, O/U 73) at Pitt: The Tar Heels have covered just once in their past six games as an underdog. The Panthers are on a 5-1 spread run against all comers.

Syracuse (+3, O/U 55.5) at Louisville: The Orange truly could be 8-1 at this point, in which case we’d be hailing Dino Babers as the ACC coach of the year favorite. Three of their four losses came by a field goal, all when they were getting more points than that. Louisville’s inability to punch it in on four shots from the Clemson 2-yard line in the final minute last week cost us our ACC lock of the week. Booooooo!

UConn (+41, O/U 50.5) at Clemson: If you made separate bets on the underdog and the over (aka, taking “the rover and over”) you’d be guaranteed to win at least one of those bets if UConn scored at least 10 points. My bigger question is whether Clemson can score 42, even against a high-calorie bakery item of an opponent.

Miami (-2.5, O/U 60.5) at Florida State: The Hurricanes aren’t “back,” but they’re heating up. They’ve covered in each of their past four road games. The Seminoles are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight as a pup.

Duke (+11.5, O/U 50) at Virginia Tech: If it feels like this series delivers unexpected results, that’s because it does. The underdog has covered in seven of the past eight meetings. The Blue Devils are really in bad shape, but they can run the ball a little, and the Hokies are struggling way too much on offense for me to lay 11.5 points with them against anybody.

Boston College (+2, O/U 54) at Georgia Tech: The Eagles are awful on the road (2-5 ATS in past seven), while the Jackets stink at home (1-6 ATS in past seven as a home fave). I’ll go with an old horse racing handicapping trick, counting on BC QB Phil Jurkovec to improve greatly in his second week after a layoff.

N.C. State (+2, O/U 66.5) at Wake Forest: The line is small enough to make it negligible. We might not consider 31,500-seat Truist Field to be a snake pit, but don’t tell that to the Wolfpack, who covered just once in their past 10 trips to Winston-Salem. I’ll ride with the Deacs.

Notre Dame (-5.5, O/U 64.5) at Virginia: Even if we could legally bet on this game in the commonwealth, I’d stay far, far away from it. So much hinges on the availability of UVa quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who’s day-to-day with an injury. I’ll take the home dog here with very little confidence.

Amac’s ACC lock of the week (4-5 ATS)

Syracuse +3

Week 10 overachievers

ACC: Boston College (+1) beat Virginia Tech 17-3

Nation: Wisconsin (-13) poleaxed Rutgers 52-3

Amac’s Pesky Pup of the Week (4-6 ATS, 4-6 SU)

Syracuse +3 at Louisville

You know what? Let’s just double down on the Orange. My picks have been going the wrong direction, but I really like this one. Syracuse has a top-20 defense and the nation’s No. 3 rushing attack. Those are two key elements for succeeding on the road. The Orange also are 8-1 against the spread this season. That’s tied with UT-San Antonio for the best mark in the country. Time to turn another of those covers into an actual win.

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