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Nice weekend weather; showers near Thanksgiving

Nice weekend weather; showers near Thanksgiving

Temperature forecast 8-14 days 112020

Orange and red colors indicate a tilting of the odds toward warmer than normal temperatures over the entire continental United States as November flips to December.

This weekend will be a great time to be outside, as sunny, dry weather of the past few days will continue, with temperatures moderating upward, 60s to lower 70s for highs and upper 30s to mid 40s for lows. This will be about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A cold front will bring a few showers in the wee hours of Monday morning and knock the temperatures back to near normal -- 50s highs, 30s lows -- for the early to middle part of next week, followed by another potentially stronger front at midweek with even more showers. The timing is uncertain at this distance whether these showers will occur on Wednesday, Thanksgiving Day or both, before another shot of cooler, drier weather behind the front. 

On the whole, the entire "lower 48" of the United States looks to tilt warmer than normal into early December, as the Arctic Oscillation goes strongly positive and low pressure over the North Pole tightens, keeping most of the Arctic air contained far to the north. There will be occasional cold front passages with Pacific or Canadian air that will pull temperatures back from mild to near or slightly below normal before quick recovery back to mild or even warm. Some showers may accompany any of these fronts but chances for soaking rains seem to be dwindling as the record tropical season is forced away from the U.S. by seasonal changes and ultimately dwindles. There is currently little to no prospect for wintry precipitation, beyond maybe some mountain snow showers behind the occasional cold front, into early December.

As a statistical footnote, Roanoke's low of 32 on Wednesday morning ended a record 254-day streak of above-freezing temperatures, extending from the earliest last freeze of spring on record, March 8, to the second-latest first freeze of fall on record, Nov. 18.  2002 retains the latest first freeze of fall, Nov. 19. 

Contact Kevin Myatt at Follow him on Twitter @kevinmyattwx.


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Since 2003, Kevin Myatt has penned the weekly Weather Journal column, and since 2006, the Weather Journal blog, which becomes particularly busy with snow. Kevin has edited a book on hurricanes and has helped lead Virginia Tech students on storm chases.

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Our region is not tornado alley by a long stretch, but does experience the occasional tornado. Tornado season has begun in the United States, with Saturday's outbreak in the Texas Panhandle and the potential for more Wednesday the South. Southwest Virginia will have some risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday,

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